US report: Political challenges in Syria are about to turn into a tug-of-war between “reformists” and “hard-liners”
The American “Stratfor” Center for Strategic and Security Studies confirmed in a report that the political challenges of the Syrian war, which is about to end, are about to turn into a tug of war between “reformists” and “extremists.”
The report stated that it is the reformists who want to re-engage with the world on one hand and hard-liners who want to maintain strict control of the country’s economy and political system on the other.
Ryan Paul, an analyst in the Middle East and North Africa at the Center, said that Russia, an important military ally of Damascus, will be trapped between “hardliners” and “reformists” within the Assad regime, which will force Moscow to increasingly play the role of mediator.
The report clarified that the popular protests over the deteriorating living conditions, which reached the areas of the “Alawite sect,” could lead to a wave of unrest, which might force the Russian army to play the role of a “peacemaker,” and then turn its intervention in Syria into an “occupation.”
The report added that restoring contact with the outside world will force the Assad regime to make concessions to the Syrian opposition, such as a deal or weakening the authority of the presidency, which the “hardliners” in the Assad regime reject.
The report pointed out that there are indications that the inner circle is ready to compromise, especially after achieving a “strategic military victory” in Daraa.
The report noted that Moscow prefers a less dangerous approach than “war”, and halting de-escalation agreements with the opposition and Turkey.
As Russia may have to take greater risks in pursuing its strategy to maintain its naval base in Tartus, Moscow is likely to play a deeper role in calming tensions between “hardliners” and “reformists,” the report said.
The report warned that Moscow risks isolating the circle that plays a major role in maintaining Russia’s position in Syria, if its influence is used to push the “extremists” within the regime towards reform.
The report concluded that the hard-line circle dependent on Tehran’s support, which supports a comprehensive war to impose the Assad regime’s control over all of Syria, may encourage resistance to Russian reform demands, and force Moscow to choose between ending its intervention or reviving Cold War-era tactics in an attempt to choose the leaders of its allied countries.
